22 Dec

Bank of Canada’s confidence grows that rates are now high enough, but says inflation risks remain

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The Bank of Canada’s six-member Governing Council believes the odds have increased that interest rates are now high enough to bring inflation back to target.

That’s according to a summary of the council’s deliberations from its December 6 monetary policy meeting.

“Members agreed that the likelihood that monetary policy was sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target had increased,” the summary reads. But they also noted that upside inflation risks remain, and are therefore not prepared to rule out further hikes.

The members agreed that the Bank’s 475 basis points of rate hikes since March 2022 are continuing to work their way through the economy and are now slowing spending and easing price pressures.

“With the economy no longer in excess demand, members agreed they would be watching for signs that the slowdown in the economy was translating into further and sustained easing in inflation,” the summary said.

However, they cited ongoing concerns about the speed at which inflation was easing. Specifically, they pointed to the three-month annualized measure of core inflation, which has “remained stuck” at between 3.5% and 4% for nearly a year.

They also expressed concern that wages have continued to increase at between 4% and 5%. “If this were to continue, it would not be consistent with achieving price stability, particularly given weak productivity,” the summary reads.

As a result, members said they want to see more evidence that both of these indicators are trending “in a direction that is consistent with price stability.”

Governing council split on where home prices are headed

The council also discussed the current monetary policy’s impact on house prices.

Some members said they believed house prices would continue to ease as high interest rates continue to “weigh on the housing market.”

Others said they were concerned that prices could continue to rise due to the mismatch between housing supply and demand, and the time needed to bring new supply online.

“Members noted that if financial conditions eased prematurely, the housing market could rebound, further fuelling shelter price pressures,” the summary noted.

The members also “discussed at length” the acceleration of shelter price inflation, which in October rose at a pace of 6.1%, contributing a full 1.8 percentage points to the overall headline inflation reading of 3.1%.

The council acknowledged that higher mortgage rates are “clearly playing a role” in shelter price inflation, but also noted strong growth in rent and other components linked to housing, such as insurance, taxes and maintenance, which they said was “unusual.”

The Bank of Canada’s next policy meeting is scheduled for January 24, 2024.

This article was written for Candian Mortgage Trends by:
19 Dec

Here’s why prospective first-time buyers should open a First Home Savings Account before Dec. 31

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

There was little fanfare earlier this year as financial institutions started making the new First Home Savings Account (FHSA) available to their clients.

But now that the product is better understood, it’s being hailed by some as “the greatest deal in the history of Canadian savings.”

At least that’s according to David Chilton, the bestselling author of The Wealthy Barber, who recently published an “emergency” TikTok video on the new savings account, saying young adults struggling to save for their first home “need to know about this.”

The FHSA was launched earlier this year by the federal government as a new vehicle to help prospective first-time buyers save for their home purchase.

It’s unique in that it combines the benefits of a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) and a tax-free savings account (TFSA). Like an RRSP, your contributions are tax deductible for the year in which you make them, and like a TFSA, any income, capital gains and dividends earned in the account are tax-free.

“As long as you’re taking the money out for the purposes of purchasing an eligible home, there are no tax consequences,” David Gyurtis, regional vice president at Mortgage Alliance and financial advisor at Keybase Financial Group, told CMT.

Why you should open a FHSA before the end of the year

The FHSA allows first-time homebuyers to contribute up to $8,000 per year up to a lifetime limit of $40,000. Any unused contribution room in a calendar year will be carried over to the following year.

For this reason, many financial advisors are suggesting that people open a FHSA account this year in order to accumulate the additional contribution room.

For those who are undecided about whether they want to purchase a home, Gyurtis advises that people at least open their FHSA to start accumulating the contribution room, even if they still plan to put most of their investments into a TFSA.

“I tell people at least get it open this year,” says Gyurtis. “If I put in $5, I will get that and whatever I don’t use this year carries over to the following year.”

Then, if they decide they do want to purchase a home later on, they can transfer the money into the room they accumulated in the FHSA and get a tax receipt to deduct from their income tax.

“If you’re really on the fence, put the bulk of your savings into your TFSA, then as soon as you’re ready, you can flip it over to the FHSA,” says Gyurtis.

If you don’t end up purchasing a home, the amount in your FHSA can be transferred to your RRSP tax-free.

“The nice thing is any money that’s in that plan—let’s say you don’t buy a property—you can actually transfer that to your RRSP with no tax consequences,” Gyurtis said. “It won’t even affect your contribution room into your RRSP.”

Alternatively, if you want to invest in an FHSA but don’t have the cash, Gyurtis says that people could consider transferring the money from their TFSA into an FHSA, and then put the money they save on taxes via a tax refund back into a TFSA.

In any case, Gyurtis suggests, “open up your FHSA so you’re getting the benefit of accumulating the contribution room.”

How does the FHSA compare to a TFSA or a home buyers’ plan?

For those saving for a down payment on a home, they may be comparing the FHSA to other investment tools like the TFSA or the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP).

The TFSA is a savings account for Canadians that lets their money grow tax-free. This money can then be taken out at any time and used in any way, including as a down payment on a property.

While the TFSA doesn’t offer the income tax deductions of a FHSA, it does offer more financial flexibility since it doesn’t require the money to be put towards a down payment.

Another alternative to the FHSA is the HBP, which allows Canadians to take up to $35,000 out of their RRSP to put towards a down payment on a home. This money then has to be repaid in the following 15 years starting two years after you made the withdrawal.

But unlike the HBP, the main benefit of the FHSA is that it doesn’t require any repayments. Importantly, Gyurtis says that the $40,000 lifetime contribution limit of the FHSA and $35,000 limit of the HBP can be combined so that Canadians can use up to $75,000 in investments to save for their down payment.

How has the FHSA been helping Canadians with home ownership?

The FHSA was created by the federal government with the intention of helping more first-time home buyers afford a property.

Since its launch in April, many first-time buyers have expressed interest in the FHSA with up to 52% of potential first-time home buyers saying they are likely to use the new savings account, according to a survey from BMO.

So far, more than 250,000 Canadians have opened a FHSA at one of over 20 financial institutions who are now offering them, according to the federal government’s Fall Economic Statement.

Is the FHSA the answer to affordability challenges?

However, Gyurtis has concerns about whether the FHSA is the most effective method for helping first-time home buyers get into a home.

“The whole issue is whether Canadians have enough money to put away,” he says. “What we were really looking for is something to help [first-time buyers] qualify for a property more easily, because right now, that’s the big challenge for first time homebuyers.”

He believes that one of the most effective ways of making home ownership more attainable to first-time buyers would be to offer longer amortization periods so buyers are able to spread out their mortgage payments over a longer period of time, making qualifying easier.

“We need to make it so that young Canadians feel that homeownership is attainable,” he says.

Frequently asked questions about the FHSA

For those interested in opening a FHSA, here are some key details to keep in mind.

Who can open a FHSA?

  • Anyone who is at least 18 years of age, not more than 71 years old, a resident of Canada, and a first-time homebuyer.

Who qualifies as a first-time homebuyer?

  • For the purposes of opening a FHSA account, you are considered a first-time homebuyer if you did not, at any time in the current calendar year before the account is opened or at any time in the preceding four calendar years, live in a qualifying home as your principal place of residence that you owned or jointly owned, or that your spouse or common-law partner owned or jointly owned.
  • For the purposes of a qualifying withdrawal, you are considered a first-time homebuyer if you did not, at any time in the current calendar year before the withdrawal (except the 30 days immediately before the withdrawal) or at any time in the preceding four calendar years, live in a qualifying home as your principal place of residence that you owned or jointly owned.

How can you open a FHSA?

  • You must contact a FHSA issuer, such as a bank credit union, a trust or insurance company. There are currently more than 20 financial institutions that offer FHSA accounts, including all of the Big 6 banks.

What do you need to open your FHSA?

  • You will need to provide your financial institution with:
    • your social insurance number
    • your date of birth
    • any supporting documents needed to certify you are a qualifying individual

When must you close your FHSA?

  • Your maximum participation period begins when you open your first FHSA and ends on December 31 of the year in which the earliest of the following events occur:
    • the 15th anniversary of opening your first FHSA
    • you turn 71 years of age
    • the year following your first qualifying withdrawal from your FHSA

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

18 Dec

Latest in Mortgage News: OSFI leaves stress test rate unchanged

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Canada’s banking regulator confirmed it will leave the mortgage stress test for uninsured mortgages unchanged.

In its annual review, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) said the minimum qualifying rate (MQR) used by federally regulated lenders will remain the greater of 5.25% or the mortgage contract rate plus 200 basis points (2%).

OSFI oversees the mortgage stress test for uninsured mortgages—generally those with a down payment of more than 20%—while the Department of Finance is responsible for the stress test applied to insured mortgages, or those typically with a down payment of less than 20%.

OSFI said it is confident the current stress test will result in lower residential mortgage default rates than would otherwise be the case if lenders did not apply the MQR when originating mortgages for homeowners.

“The minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages has produced a more resilient residential mortgage financing system characterized by low default and delinquency rates,” said OSFI head Peter Routledge. “Holding the MQR at its current rate helps ensure that lenders and borrowers effectively manage the risks associated with residential mortgages.”

What is the minimum qualifying rate?

OSFI’s stress test was first introduced in 2018 as part of its updated B-20 guidelines, which govern mortgage underwriting practices and procedures.

The stress test must be used by federally regulated lenders to qualify new uninsured mortgage borrowers and those wanting to switch lenders using the higher of their contracted mortgage rate plus 200 bps or 5.25%, whichever is higher. This is known as the minimum qualifying rate, or MQR. Insured mortgages don’t need to be re-stress tested when switching to a new lender, OSFI revealed in October.

Most mortgage rates currently available from the big banks and other national lenders are currently higher than 5.25%, meaning borrowers must prove they can afford payments based on a qualifying rate of 7.25% or more.

But with some mortgage rates now falling near or even below 5%, the minimum qualification rate of 5.25% could once again become more important.nesto to take on Canada Life’s mortgage clients

After announcing its exit from the residential mortgage market in 2022, Canada Life has reached an agreement with nesto to take on the servicing of its existing portfolio.

Montreal-based nesto, which launched in 2018, is a leading digital mortgage company and will begin the servicing and administration of Canada Life’s mortgage portfolio starting in January. As part of the agreement, nesto will also be responsible for Canada Life mortgages at maturity.

“We are very excited about nesto’s award winning customer service platform which was an important factor in our decision to choose nesto,” said Steve Fiorelli, SVP, Wealth Solutions, Canada Life. “We wanted to ensure that our mortgage customers have a best-in-class partner passionate about offering great service for one of their most important investments.”

The partnership will bring nesto’s mortgages under administration to more than $10 billion.

National mortgage arrears rate ticks up

The national average mortgage arrears rate ticked up in September, though it continues to remain just off its all-time low.

After seven straight months of no change, the national arrears rate rose to 0.16% from 0.15%. That works out to 8,140 mortgages out of a total of 5.07 million, according to data from the Canadian Bankers Association.

The arrears rate tracks mortgages that are behind payments by three months or more. While this has ticked up from the all-time low of 0.14% reached last year, it is well below the highs seen during the pandemic, which saw a peak of 0.27% in June 2020.

The arrears rate is highest in Saskatchewan (0.58%), Alberta (0.33%) and Manitoba (0.28%), and is lowest in British Columbia (0.13%), Quebec (0.13%) and Ontario (0.10%).

Average mortgage balance rose 3.9% in Q3

The average outstanding mortgage balance rose to $356,848, according to data from TransUnion. That’s up 3.9% compared to a year earlier.

The agency also reported a dramatic slowdown in mortgage originations in the first half of the year, which were down 27% compared to the active mortgage market in early 2022.

In its own measure of 90+ day mortgage delinquency rates, TransUnion reported a 2-basis-point rise in Q3 to 0.20%. Personal loans saw the largest rise in delinquencies, rising 16 bps to 1.27%, followed by auto loan delinquencies, which were up 12 bps year-over-year to 0.88%.

Ontario’s new blind bidding rules come into force

New rules impacting real estate transactions in Ontario took effect December 1, which are meant to provide more choice and transparency for buyers and sellers.

As part of an update to Ontario’s realtor legislation, the Trust in Real Estate Services Act (TRESA), sellers now have the option to use an open bidding process, which would allow them to disclose submitted bid prices to potential buyers—something that was banned previously.

While the federal Liberals promised to end blind bidding as part of their Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights unveiled in 2022, there remains no national ban, and the new disclosure rules in Ontario are only voluntary.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

15 Dec

Mortgage de-selection: Can your lender choose not to renew your mortgage?

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

In its third-quarter earnings call, Scotiabank said it was undertaking a strategy of “customer de-selection at renewal” as part of its efforts to slow its mortgage growth and be more selective of its client base.

“I think this is a good time to drive that standard higher here because it’s a softer, slower housing market,” said Dan Rees, head of Canadian Banking. “We are also being more efficient with regards to our use of capital and using customer deselection at renewal as part of that conversation.”

With an estimated three million Canadians facing a mortgage renewal over the next 15 years, that comment has raised a very important question for many borrowers: does my lender have to renew my mortgage?

Is your mortgage renewal guaranteed?

For a little bit more context, we reached out to some mortgage professionals.

“If the mortgage is up to date, if the payments are up to date, then some renewal will be offered to the homeowner. That’s the general policy of these organizations,” says Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage.

While this is a typical practice among federally regulated banks, Butler points out that provincially regulated credit unions also tend to follow the same guidance.

From Butler’s perspective, borrowers might be refused renewal if there were major violations of the contract such as rebuilding the home without permission, or if the homeowner ended up in prison.

Frances Hinojosa, CEO of Tribe Financial, adds that there are sometimes other risk factors that lenders may consider.

“I think there’s this misconception that when we come up for renewal, the banks are going to renew regardless. And that’s not necessarily the case,” Hinojosa said.

Lenders may review multiple factors, such as the current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio or the prevailing economic environment, when they’re assessing the risk of that client, she added.

A potential misinterpretation

While “mortgage de-selection” evokes images of a lender simply refusing to renew a client’s mortgage, the process is actually more nuanced.

In no uncertain terms, Butler said the chance of Scotiabank—or any other major lender—choosing not to renew clients is a very low probability.

“I have seen nothing at all that would indicate that Scotia is sending people notices that they will not renew their mortgage,” he told CMT.

Matthew Imhoff, founder of Meticulous Mortgages, says the process more often involved a renewal offer that’s simply not appealing to the client.

“When I look at the banks, the deselecting is more [about] offering a rate that the bank is willing to accept to keep the client,” he said.

It’s also important to note that Scotiabank has been very open about its strategy to scale down its mortgage book in order to focus more on growing its deposits, whereas the other major lenders are typically still looking for both origination growth and customer retention.

A riskier rate environment

But with hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgages coming up for renewal at higher interest rates, and banks setting aside large amounts of funds in preparation for a rise in delinquencies, Hinojosa says all lenders are carefully assessing risk.

They’re also having to balance regulatory requirements that now require them to keep additional capital on hand in the event of potential future losses. On Friday, for example, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) maintained its Domestic Stability Buffer—a kind of “rainy day fund”—at 3.5% of risk-weighted assets. This is in addition to minimum capital requirements for Canada’s Big 6 banks to keep on hand at least 11.5% of risk-weighted assets.

“We’re seeing more complexity around [the interest rates lenders offer] especially now when we’re in a lending environment where there’s higher capital requirements,” Hinojosa said. “[Lenders] are looking more at risk levels, they’re forecasting out for if there are going to be any potential defaults.”

Additionally, Butler views the use of the term deselection to express Scotiabank’s desire to “maintain the kind of margins they felt they needed to make on mortgages,” he indicates.

In an email to CMT, Scotiabank clarified Rees’ comment from Scotia’s earnings call.

“Our mortgage portfolio remains strong and when a mortgage comes up for renewal, we continue to be committed to providing our mortgage customers with appropriate renewal options based on their individual needs and financial goals.”

11 Dec

Equitable Bank says majority of its mortgage borrowers have already renewed at higher rates

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Alternative lender Equitable Bank revealed today that a majority of its residential mortgage clients have already renewed at higher interest rates and have largely absorbed the increases.

In the bank’s fourth-quarter earnings call, President and CEO Andrew Moor said over 80% of its uninsured single-family mortgage customers have either originated or renewed their loans at today’s higher interest rates. As of year-end, its alternative mortgage clients had an average rate of 5.99%.

Moore said he is encouraged that the “vast majority of our customers are able to absorb this increase.”

“I have a lot of empathy for our customers here. I think lots of people wouldn’t have expected interest rates to rise as fast as they have,” he said during the bank’s earnings call.

“Most people, because the employment situation is still fairly good, are able to accommodate this shock to the mortgage payment,” he continued.

However, like other banks and mortgage lenders that have reported fourth-quarter earnings, Equitable has also seen delinquencies start to rise. Net impaired loans among its residential mortgage lending rose to 0.37% of the portfolio, up from 0.25% in the previous quarter.

“We are seeing some people at the margin…having a little bit of challenge to make those payments, but it’s not really translating into anything in the way of losses,” Moor noted.

The bank also reported that it continued to see strong growth among its client base, which surpassed 400,000 people in Q4, up 30% from last year.

Highlights from the Q4 earnings report

  • Net income (adjusted): $147 million (+59% YoY)
  • Earnings per share (adjusted): $3.80
  • Assets under management and administration: $111 billion (+8%)
  • Single-family alternative portfolio: $30 billion (+%)
  • Insured multi-unit portfolio: $20 billion (+27%)
  • Net interest margin: 2% (+13 bps)
  • Net impaired loans (residential loans): 0.37% (+12 bps QoQ)
  • Reverse mortgage loans: $1.5 billion (+43%)
  • Avg. LTV of Equitable’s uninsured single-family residential portfolio: 62%
  • Provisions for credit losses (PCLs): $19.6M (+50% QoQ)
  • CET1 ratio: 14% (+30bps)

Notables from its call

  • Equitable noted that it does not offer single-family variable-rate mortgages that could trigger negative amortization.
  • Nearly 100% of EQB’s lending portfolio is secured and approximately 52% is insured.

CEO Andrew Moor commented on the following topics during the company’s earnings call:

  • On retention rates: “…loan retention is much higher, and this is a tailwind we expect to continue into 2024…We’re sort of 10% ahead of where we would normally be…it’s been the case throughout the last year or so. It’s fairly consistent.”
  • On Bank of Canada interest rate moves: “I have a strong view that it looks like the Bank of Canada is going to be into easing sooner rather than later.”
  • On the impact of mortgage rate spreads in a falling-rate environment: “What I’ve observed over the years in a dropping interest rate environment, mortgage spreads and just general lending spreads expand…Somebody is going to make a decision to drop mortgage rates in a competitive market that tends to lag a little bit…If you look at prime mortgage spreads in the market today, they’re actually quite wide based on the fact that the bonds rallied 90 basis points over the last 30, 45 days over the five year, and yet we haven’t really seen much in the way of dropping 5-year rates.”
  • On mortgage volume growth in 2024: “I think we’ll see low single-digit…annualized rates through the middle of next year. As the market starts to anticipate rate cuts, you will see a bit more activity in the housing market. There’s clearly pent-up [demand], potential buyers sitting on the sidelines, a bit of a stand-off between sellers and buyers. So, I’m rather optimistic, frankly, that as we get through the first third of the year or so, we’ll see some more activity.”
  • On the federal government’s recently announced Mortgage Charter: “What’s being asked for is entirely reasonable. So, it seems sensible. We’re always working with our customers if they’re looking for things to help them get through the period. But, generally, we’re very disciplined on giving relief because our experience has been that people getting too far behind on their mortgages, they can never catch up.”

Source: EQB Q4 earnings call


Note: Transcripts are provided as-is from the companies and/or third-party sources, and their accuracy cannot be 100% assured.

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

6 Dec

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The global economy continues to slow and inflation has eased further. In the United States, growth has been stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending, but is likely to weaken in the months ahead as past policy rate increases work their way through the economy. Growth in the euro area has weakened and, combined with lower energy prices, this has reduced inflationary pressures. Oil prices are about $10-per-barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have also eased, with long-term interest rates unwinding some of the sharp increases seen earlier in the autumn. The US dollar has weakened against most currencies, including Canada’s.

In Canada, economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023. Real GDP contracted at a rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, following growth of 1.4% in the second quarter. Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.

The slowdown in the economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods and services prices. Combined with the drop in gasoline prices, this contributed to the easing of CPI inflation to 3.1% in October. However, shelter price inflation has picked up, reflecting faster growth in rent and other housing costs along with the continued contribution from elevated mortgage interest costs. In recent months, the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.

With further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 24, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

 

This article is a media release from the Bank of Canada, Dec 06, 2023.

5 Dec

Residential Mortgage Commentary – BoC likely to hold the line

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Two key guide posts for the Canadian economy are pointing in the same direction.  Both the third quarter GDP numbers and November jobs figures suggest the Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any changes to its trendsetting interest rate in the coming days.

Canada’s economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% through July, August and September.  That was a bigger decline than expected.  Market watchers had been looking for a modest 0.2% increase.  The Bank of Canada had forecast a 0.8% gain.  The country avoided falling into a technical recession though, because the Q2 reading was revised upwards to a 1.4% gain.  It had initially been posted as a 0.2% decline.  Nonetheless the economy has been on a slowing trend for several months.

The economy added more jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate went up.  There were nearly 25,000 jobs added, beating the forecast of 15,000.  However, that did not keep up with the country’s population growth.  Unemployment rose to 5.8%, from 5.7% in October, because there are more people looking for work.

These are the last two major economic data points before the Bank of Canada makes its December rate announcement this week.  When combined with the latest inflation numbers (up 3.1% y/y in October) the Bank appears to have all the reasons it needs to hold its policy rate at 5.0%.  That rate has not moved since July and the market focus has now shifted away from further increases and toward when there could be cuts.

 

This article was written by the First National Financial LP Marketing Team, click here for the original post.

4 Dec

Some mortgage clients could see up to 40% payment increases at renewal, BMO says

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Like most other financial institutions, BMO said the bulk of its mortgage portfolio will be up for renewal in the coming three years, with the payment increases averaging up to 40%.

In its fourth-quarter earnings call, the bank said just 11% of its portfolio—or $16.2 billion worth—will renew in the next 12 months. The majority is then set to renew in 2025 ($27.6 billion) and 2026 ($55.8 billion).

Of its clients who have already renewed their mortgages, BMO said the average increase to their regular payments has been 21% for fixed-rate borrowers and 22% for those with variable-rate mortgages. Given that those are averages, some borrowers have seen smaller increases while others have seen their payments rise by more.

And as those who secured rock-bottom rates during the pandemic start to see their rates reset in the coming years, BMO says the payment increases will grow larger.

“We do see people having to face a 30% increase this year,” said Ernie Johannson, Head of BMO North American Personal and Business Banking. “That will get higher as we move into ’26 because—if you assume no rate decrease—there would be customers who would potentially be facing 35% or 40%, at that tail end.”

Despite the increases, BMO says borrowers have so far been able to handle the higher rates.

“We’ve seen an ability for consumers to adjust and be able to afford the increased payment,” Johannson added, noting that they were stress tested at a higher rate at origination and that many are also seeing an increase in income that is helping to offset the higher payments. “We feel pretty confident that there is an…ability to be able to handle that increase.”

Rate cuts could also lessen the payment shock for renewals taking place in 2026, added Chief Risk Officer Piyush Agrawal.

“A larger portion of our portfolio renews in 2026, by which time we expect interest rates will have moderated and customers will have had time to prepare,” he said.

Delinquency rate remains low, and clients still have payment buffers

BMO reported that its 90+ day mortgage delinquency rate remains low at just 0.14% of its portfolio, unchanged from the previous quarter and up from 0.11% a year ago.

Of its variable-rate mortgage portfolio, the bank said about 62%, or $29.8 billion worth, are currently negatively amortizing, meaning the monthly payments aren’t enough to cover the total interest cost, which is being added to the principal balance.

This is a situation unique to fixed-payment variable rate mortgage products, which are offered by BMO, CIBC and TD. While RBC also offers fixed-payment variable rate mortgages, it does not allow its mortgages to amortize negatively.

“We are proactively reaching out to customers, particularly our variable-rate customers,” said Agrawal. “We’ve had a positive customer response to the outreach, resulting in a reduction in mortgages in negative amortization from the prior quarter.”

Agrawal also said the bank’s analytical insights show clients are changing their behaviour and are “adjusting to the new reality” of higher interest rates. That includes a decline in credit card spending, particularly for discretionary items.

He also pointed to a still strong savings rate of 5%, with increased amounts going into investments. “So, there are buffer mechanisms,” he noted.

The bank has also seen the percentage of its mortgages with amortizations above 30 years ease back to 27%. That’s down from nearly a third of its portfolio in late 2022.


Remaining amortizations for BMO residential mortgages

Q4 2022 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
16-20 years 13.5% 13.4% 13.6%
21-25 years 32.3% 31.6% 32.1%
26-30 years 13.8% 15.8% 18%
30 years and more 31.3% 29.8% 27%
Remaining amortization is based on current balance, interest rate, customer payment amount and payment frequency.

BMO earnings highlights

Q4 net income (adjusted): $2.15 billion (+0.1% Y/Y)
Earnings per share (adjusted): $2.81

Q4 2022 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Residential mortgage portfolio $139.4B $135.5B $150.6B
HELOC portfolio $47.3B $48.5B $48.7B
Percentage of mortgage portfolio uninsured 69% 71% 71%
Avg. loan-to-value (LTV) of uninsured book 52% 55% 54%
Mortgages renewing in the next 12 months $23B $21B $16.2B
% of portfolio with an effective amz of <25 yrs 55% 54% 55%
90-day delinquency rate 0.11% 0.14% 0.14%
Canadian banking net interest margin (NIM) 2.72% 2.77% 2.77%
Provisions for credit losses $226M $492B $446M
Source: BMO Q4 Investor Presentation

Conference Call

  • BMO reported that its capital position continued to strengthen with a common equity ratio of 12.5%, up 20 basis points from the prior quarter.
  • “Given our current outlook for higher for longer rates and the lagged impact from these interest rate increases, we expect impaired loss rates to trend somewhat higher from Q4 levels in the range of low-30 basis points, still below our long-term average and then improve as the rate start to come down and the economy begins to strengthen further,” said Chief Risk Officer Piyush Agrawal.
  • “Given our strong risk management capabilities, the quality of our portfolio and prudent allowance coverage, we remain well-positioned to manage current and emerging risks,” Agrawal added.

Source: BMO Q4 conference call


Note: Transcripts are provided as-is from the companies and/or third-party sources, and their accuracy cannot be 100% assured.

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

1 Dec

Not quite a recession, but Canada sees third-quarter growth turn negative

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

There was growing talk of the “R-word” (recession) leading up to today’s GDP data release, given the third quarter could have marked the second straight month of negative growth.

Instead, markets received another R-word…revision.

While Statistics Canada revealed that real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, it also revised up its previous negative reading for Q2 to positive growth of 0.3%.

This avoided two straight quarters of declining GDP, which many consider the technical definition of a recession.

“Whatever label you slap on this economy, it’s basically not growing, despite the artificial sweetener of rapid population growth,” noted BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter.

“But reinforcing the point that it doesn’t quite sink to the level of recession, the initial read on monthly GDP for October was a surprisingly perky +0.2%, confounding expectations that activity would shrink in Q4,” he added.

“It’s not a technical recession, but it’s not good either,” wrote TD’s James Orlando.

Economy is weak no matter how you slice it

On an annualized basis, GDP fell less than expected by 1.1% in Q3. That followed an upward revision in Q2 to +1.4% from -0.2% previously.

Housing investment was a positive contributor to growth in the quarter, rising +8% quarter-over-quarter following five straight quarterly declines.

“Still, the details of the Q3 data were soft—GDP would have declined a larger 3% in the quarter without a 7.3% jump in government spending,” noted RBC’s Nathan Janzen.

Meanwhile, international trade was a net negative for growth, with exports of goods and services down 5.1% from the previous quarter, led by a 25.4% drop in refined petroleum energy products.

Imports were also down by 0.6%, led by “declines in clothing, footwear and textile products, transportation services, and electronic and electrical equipment and parts.” Household spending was flat in the quarter, following a similar flat reading in Q2.

GDP figures reinforce a BoC rate hold, but too soon for cuts

Today’s results are expected to keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines at its net monetary policy meeting next week, and into the new year.

Economists say continued weak growth in the coming quarters should help bring inflation back to (or near) the central bank’s target of 2%.

“Overall, today’s mixed report reinforces the point that the Bank is done hiking rates, but doesn’t really advance the cause for rate cuts, as the economy isn’t showing signs of further deterioration early in Q4,” said Porter.

Others believe continued weak growth will be enough to herald in the central bank’s first rate cuts as early as April of next year.

“We expect below trend economic growth to continue over the coming months, which will push inflation gradually closer to the 2% target,” noted Orlando. “This will give the BoC a few months before it starts to prepare markets for rate cuts, which we expect will start in April 2024.”

CIBC’s Andrew Grantham agreed, saying the “sluggish trend in economic activity and further decline in the job vacancy rate today keeps us on track for a first interest rate cut in Q2 next year.”

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by: